But what about a man whose record in the event includes four top-three finishes?
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you 51 year old Colin Montgomerie, that perennial underachiever who actually managed to achieve quite a lot and has gone on to glory on the Seniors Tour, where he has won the US Senior Open 2014 and two consecutive Senior PGA Championships.
Okay, the Seniors is the Seniors, but Monty's learned how to win big events against quality competition. Add that to his all round game, his ability to play links courses and an attitude that is decidedly more relaxed than at times gone by and I suggest that - weirdly - this may be his year.
Certainly the bookies and the punters don't think so (500-1 before the event). Even Monty probably expects to be behind the commentary microphone after a couple of days, resting his weary feet after trampling over the 7,900 yard course a couple of times.
But this is a competition where the player who makes fewest mistakes tends to win. This course punishes all kinds of shots - good and bad - and the putting greens are nowhere near the quality these guys are used to playing on. The confidence of the top players will be tested. That may affect how they play. The result could be a levelling of the playing field and, if that's the case, don't be surprised if the old war horse comes trundling through the pack.
Of course, I could be wrong. History suggests I will be. But I've splashed out £3 on an each-way bet on the big man anyway, just in case.